Forecaster Gas

  • Are your daily forecasts accurate?

  • Are you making the most of your storage?

  • Does greater accuracy always mean greater management effort?

  • Do you think improving precision requires special statistical know-how?

 

E4C Gas Forecaster is a forecasting and business intelligence system designed to meet the needs of short-term forecasting for the gas market. It automatically provides daily forecasts and monthly programs for each PoD.

Another function is to create and update a wide range of reports and indicators for ongoing performance monitoring.

Objectives
 
Key Features
  • Provide withdrawal forecasts
  • Improve forecast accuracy to make storage more efficient
  • Minimize statistical know-how required
  • Reduce management effort
  • Industrialize the forecasting process without losing control
  • State-of-the-art statistical models
  • Forecasting at all levels
  • Flexible timeframe
  • Advanced tools for the analyst
  • Extremely market-specific
 
Business Problem

The natural gas market has unique forecasting needs: users of the national gas pipeline must provide the pipeline manager with a detailed daily schedule of the withdrawals for each Point of Delivery. An error in these estimates causes significant imbalance costs.
An accurate demand forecasting application is therefore crucial, and it must be easily usable by business users without requiring specific statistical and analytical skills.
In addition to the common difficulties of forecasting, there are other specific problems for this industry, such as Points of Delivery without daily measuring or that are shared with other users, seasonal industrial withdrawals and so on.

i4C Solution

E4C Gas Forecaster is designed to solve these problems easily and accurately. It provides daily withdrawal estimates (in addition to the monthly planning) per point of delivery and offers a full range of reports, graphic displays, and indicators. Time series can be analyzed at any level, starting from the customer, in order to achieve significant aggregates (area weather, classes of goods) that are completely customizable by the user. The system offers a full range of statistical methods, supplemented by the highly market-specific forecasting methods: authority profiles, NDM meter algorithms. The user has automated support throughout the process, from master data acquisition, through measurement/weather data processing and the assignment of estimates logics, to the production and deployment of the outcomes.